Prediction Markets
Overview
Omnera integrates prediction market execution into the same discovery surface as spot and perpetual futures trading. When the behavioral engine identifies that a trader’s profile shows affinity for event-driven positioning — elections, protocol upgrades, token launches, macroeconomic decisions — prediction market opportunities are surfaced alongside traditional trading signals.How It Works
Prediction markets allow traders to take positions on the outcome of future events. Each market resolves to a binary or multi-outcome result, and shares are priced between 0 and 1 (representing the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring). Example: A market on whether ETH will exceed $5,000 by a specific date. Shares for “Yes” trading at 0.35 imply a 35% market-consensus probability. If the outcome resolves to “Yes,” each share pays 1.00. If “No,” each share pays 0.00.Execution
Prediction market orders are routed through the same execution router as spot and perps trades. The trader selects an outcome, sets a position size, and confirms. The router handles venue selection and order construction.| Parameter | Description |
|---|---|
| Outcome | The specific outcome being purchased (e.g., “Yes” or “No”) |
| Size | Number of shares or dollar amount to allocate |
| Price | Current market price (0-1) representing implied probability |
| Max cost | Maximum amount the trader is willing to pay, including slippage |
Resolution
Prediction markets resolve based on the rules defined by the underlying protocol. Resolution is typically oracle-based or governance-based, depending on the venue. Once resolved:- Winning shares pay out at 1.00 per share
- Losing shares pay out at 0.00
- Payouts are settled on-chain
Discovery Integration
Prediction markets are not siloed into a separate section of the feed. They appear alongside spot and perps opportunities, ranked by the same behavioral relevance model. A trader whose profile indicates interest in macro events will see prediction markets surfaced naturally within their feed. A trader with no history of prediction market interaction will see them less prominently. This integration reflects Omnera’s core principle: the feed should present the best opportunity for each individual trader, regardless of the instrument type.Prediction market availability depends on the underlying protocols integrated at any given time. Not all events or outcomes may be available. Market liquidity varies by event and proximity to resolution.